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Tạp chí quốc tế 2021
Số tạp chí In press(2021) Trang:
Tạp chí: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth

Urban development is dominated by various factors ranging from natural and social factors to accessibility to urban infrastructures. Urbanization in an unfavorable location in terms of the above factors can create difficulties with connecting to the city center, adjacent urban areas, and wastage of land resources. In the context of Can Tho city, a newly developing city, its urban expansion process and factors affecting urbanized possibility were explored by applying multiple logistic regression (MLR) on Landsat imagery and accessible geospatial data sources. The analyses confirmed a significant urban expansion in the entire city between 2003 and 2017, mostly in central districts and along the Hau river. The primary dynamics of urban expansion were explained by an efficient MLR (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic – AUROC = 0.803), based on six factors related to accessibility to transportation, developed urban areas, industrial zone, elevation, soil type, and population. A simulation of urbanization probability revealed that most remote areas with low accessibility to urban infrastructures are difficult to urbanize with a probability of less than 40%. In contrast, the high potentially urbanized regions expanded the already built-up areas in riverside districts. Our findings facilitate the understanding of urbanized driven factors in the newly developing delta cities for long-term planning when urbanization remains under control

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